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YOUR CANADIAN MORTGAGE BROKER

July 28, 2010

Slow growth predicted: Economic signs expected to stop short of double dip


Those looking for signs of a double-dip recession will likely have trouble finding them in the coming week, analysts say.

The main economic data on tap will focus on growth in Canada and the United States, with the release of reports Friday in both countries on gross domestic product.

While they are expected to show the North American economy cooling off , the reports are unlikely to hint at either country slipping into negative growth, said BMO Capital Markets economist Benjamin Reitzes.

"For Canada, we expect continued growth but ebbing momentum," said Reitzes, whose forecast calls for tepid 0.1 per cent monthly growth in the country's economy in May, following stellar annualized growth of 4.9 per cent in the final quarter of last year and 6.1 per cent in 2010's first quarter. The consensus among most economists is for an increase of between 0.1 and 0.2 per cent in May.

"That's to be expected at this point. You get a big bounce off inventory rebuilding after the end of the recession and pent-up demand, but that fades and growth slows.

"In the U.S., it's essentially the same story. We still expect growth in the second half."

TD Economics senior economist James Marple said he is expecting U.S. growth to slow to a 2.1 per cent annualized rate in the second quarter, while the consensus of economists surveyed is calling for 2.5 per cent, following on 3.5 per cent average growth over the past three quarters.

Despite the end of the home-buyer's tax credit and reduced retail spending on building materials, Marple sees a silver lining in business spending on equipment and software, which has been strong in the second quarter.

Click HERE for the complete article.

By John Morrissy, Financial Post July 26, 2010

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December 2, 2011; MCAP has announced an agreement to acquire the residential mortgage operations and certain related assets of ResMor Trust Company (ResMor). The transaction is expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2012 and is subject to regulatory approval and other customary closing conditions. [ Read more... ]
October 25, 2011; The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent. [ Read more... ]
October 19, 2011; Since 2008 the government of Canada has made mandatory changes to reduce the maximum amortization period from 40 years down to 35 and now down to 30 years for any insured mortgages.

Insured mortgages (also known as high ratio mortgages) are mortgages that require less than 20% of the value of the home for the down payment or for refinancing, less than 20% in equity. The government backs these mortgages for the protection of the lenders. Currently with these mortgages the maximum amortization period is 30 years.

The media has covered how the amortization has been reduced to 30 years in depth, but they have failed to mention that this is not the case with other mortgage options. Mortgages that are often referred to as conventional or uninsured mortgages, which entail a 20% or greater down payment or equity, still offer amortization periods of up to 40 years. [ Read more... ]

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